Application of Susceptible-Infected-Removed Model with Vital Dynamics for COVID-19 Outbreak in Malaysia

Authors

  • Yeong Kin Teoh Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis Branch
  • Nur Fatihah Hamdan Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis Branch
  • Suzanawati Abu Hasan Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis Branch
  • Anas Fathul Ariffin Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis Branch
  • Aishah Mahat Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Johor Branch

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24191/jcrinn.v7i2.292

Keywords:

COVID-19, SIR model, vital dynamics, pandemic

Abstract

In late 2019, the unique severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, first emerged in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and quickly spread throughout the world. Until June 30, 2022, a total of 4,566,055 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Malaysia, with 35,765 deaths and 4,500,856 recovered cases. This study aims to generalise a deterministic SIR model with vital dynamics for understanding the proliferation of infectious diseases. The SIR model with vital dynamics is more realistic in mimicking reality than the basic SIR model because it can determine the dynamic behaviours of COVID-19 over a more extended period. The SIR model utilises vital dynamics with unequal birth and death rates. Furthermore, the SIR model with vital dynamics is rescaled with the total time-varying population and analysed according to its epidemic condition. The results indicated that the number of infected individuals would peak about 10 - 15 days and reach their steady state about 25 - 60 days. The findings of this research may help policymakers establish, plan, and implement effective COVID-19 pandemic response strategies.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Ariffin, M. R. K., Gopal, K., Krishnarajah, I., Che Ilias, I. S., Adam, M. B., Arasan, J., Abd Rahman, N. H., Mohd Dom, N. S., & Mohammad Sham, N. (2021). Mathematical epidemiologic and simulation modelling of first wave COVID-19 in Malaysia. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 20739. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99541-0

Cooper, I., Mondal, A., & Antonopoulos, C. G. (2020). A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 139, 110057. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CHAOS.2020.110057

Department of Statistics Malaysia. (2020). Workbook: MyCenDash. https://tableau.dosm.gov.my/t/BPPD-BahagianperangkaanpendudukdanDemografi/views/MyCenDash/MALAYSIA?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aorigin=card_share_link

Dos Santos, W. G. (2020). Natural history of COVID-19 and current knowledge on treatment therapeutic options. Biomedicine & Pharmacotherapy, 129, 110493. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.BIOPHA.2020.110493

Elengoe, A. (2020). COVID-19 Outbreak in Malaysia. Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives, 11(3), 93–100. https://doi.org/10.24171/J.PHRP.2020.11.3.08

Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 115(772), 700–721. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118

Lechien, J. R., Chiesa-Estomba, C. M., Place, S., van Laethem, Y., Cabaraux, P., Mat, Q., Huet, K., Plzak, J., Horoi, M., ephane Hans, S., Rosaria Barillari, M., Cammaroto, G., Fakhry, N., Martiny, D., Ayad, T., Jouffe, L., Hopkins, C., & Saussez, S. (2020). Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of 1420 European patients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019. Journal of Internal Medicine, 288(3), 335–344. https://doi.org/10.1111/joim.13089

Muñoz-Fernández, G. A., Seoane, J. M., & Seoane-Sepúlveda, J. B. (2021). A SIR-type model describing the successive waves of COVID-19. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 144, 110682. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CHAOS.2021.110682

Salman, A. M., Ahmed, I., Mohd, M. H., Jamiluddin, M. S., & Dheyab, M. A. (2021). Scenario analysis of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Malaysia with the possibility of reinfection and limited medical resources scenarios. Computers in Biology and Medicine, 133, 104372. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.COMPBIOMED.2021.104372

Trawicki, M. B. (2017). Deterministic Seirs Epidemic Model for Modeling Vital Dynamics, Vaccinations, and Temporary Immunity. Mathematics 2017, Vol. 5, Page 7, 5(1), 7. https://doi.org/10.3390/MATH5010007

Worldometer. (2020). Malaysia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/malaysia/

Downloads

Published

2022-09-30

How to Cite

Teoh, Y. K., Hamdan, N. F., Abu Hasan, S., Ariffin, A. F., & Mahat, A. (2022). Application of Susceptible-Infected-Removed Model with Vital Dynamics for COVID-19 Outbreak in Malaysia. Journal of Computing Research and Innovation, 7(2), 82–87. https://doi.org/10.24191/jcrinn.v7i2.292

Issue

Section

General Computing

Most read articles by the same author(s)