Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria

Authors

  • Oludare Adedire University of Jos, Plateau State.
  • Yahaya Sadiku Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
  • Olufemi. O Adedire Federal College of Forestry Mechanization, Afaka, Kaduna, Kaduna State, Nigeria
  • Kambai Collina Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
  • Afolabi. O Oladejo Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
  • G.K Sikiru Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24191/jcrinn.v7i1.258

Keywords:

arima, model, disease, coronavirus, forecast, Nigeria

Abstract

In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.  Due  to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive  Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method  is used on the data which covered  a period of 521 days (27  February, 2020-  1st  August 2021).  While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0)  indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544  with p-value  of 0.084,  diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1)  indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130.  Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models.  Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed  daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19  cases in Nigerian population.  Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same.

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Published

2022-03-30

How to Cite

Adedire, O., Sadiku, Y., Adedire, O. O., Collina, K., Oladejo, A. O., & Sikiru, G. (2022). Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria. Journal of Computing Research and Innovation, 7(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.24191/jcrinn.v7i1.258

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Section

General Computing