Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria


  • Oludare Adedire University of Jos, Plateau State.
  • Yahaya Sadiku Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
  • Olufemi. O Adedire Federal College of Forestry Mechanization, Afaka, Kaduna, Kaduna State, Nigeria
  • Kambai Collina Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
  • Afolabi. O Oladejo Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
  • G.K Sikiru Federal College of Forestry Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria



arima, model, disease, coronavirus, forecast, Nigeria


In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.  Due  to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive  Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method  is used on the data which covered  a period of 521 days (27  February, 2020-  1st  August 2021).  While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0)  indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544  with p-value  of 0.084,  diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1)  indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130.  Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models.  Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed  daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19  cases in Nigerian population.  Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same.


Download data is not yet available.


Abu, B.N., and Rosbi, S. (2017). Data clustering using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for Islamic country currency: An econometrics method for Islamic financial engineering. The international Journal of Engineering and Sciences, 6 (6), 22-31.

Adebowale, N. (2021). "Updated: COVID-19 variant, causing anxiety in UK, found in Nigeria – Official". The Premium Times. Retrieved January 29, 2021, from

Adedire, O., Ndam, J. N. (2021). A model of dual latency compartments for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Oyo State, Nigeria. Journal of Engineering and Applied Science Letters, 4(1), 1-13, doi:10.30538/psrp-easl2021.0056.

Adewole, M.O., Onifade, A. A.,·Abdullah, F.A., Kasali, F·, Ismail, A. I. M.(2021). Modeling the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Int.J.Appl.Comput.Math, 7:67, 2-25,

Adhikari, S. P., Meng, S., Wu, Y. J., Mao, Y. P., Ye, R. X., Wang, Q. Z., Sun, C., Sylvia, S., Rozelle, S., Raat, H., and Zhou, H. (2020). Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review, Infectious Diseases of Poverty 9:29

Agbakwuru, J. (2020). "Buhari sets up 12 member Task Force to control Coronavirus". Vanguard Newspaper. Retrieved March 11, 2020, from

Agusi, E.R., Ijoma, S.I., Nnochin, C.S.,, Njoku-Achu, N.O., Nwosuh, C.I., Meseko, C.A.(2020). The COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing in Nigeria: ignorance or defiance. Pan Africa Medical Journal. 2020;35(2):52. ISSN: 1937-8688, doi: 10.11604/pamj.2020.35.2.23649

Ajisegiri, W.S, Odusanya, O.O & Joshi, R. (2020). COVID-19 Outbreak Situation in Nigeria and the Need for Effective Engagement of Community Health Workers for Epidemic Response. Global Biosecurity, 2020; 1(4).

Amzat, J., Aminu, K., Kolo, V.I., Akinyele, A.A., Ogundairo, J.A., Danjibo, M.C. (2020). Coronavirus outbreak in Nigeria: Burden and socio-medical response during the first 100 days. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 98 (2020), 218–224,.

Asishana, J. (2020). "BREAKING: Niger declares lockdown over COVID-19". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 23 March 2020,

Awojulugbe, O. (2020). "NYSC shuts orientation camps over coronavirus". The Cable. Retrieved 18 March 2020.

Azooz, A. A. (2020). Empirical parameterization of COVID-19 virus pandemic, Journal of Multidisciplinary Modeling and Optimization 3(1), 12-26.

Box, G.E.P., Jenkins G.M. and Reinsel, G.C. (2020). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 2013.

Brockwell, P.J. and Davies, R.A. (2003). Introduction to time series and forecasting, Springer, New York, 2003.

Daka, F. T. (10 March 2020). "Buhari names task force on coronavirus". The Guardian Newspaper (Nigeria). Retrieved 11 March 2020.

Daniel, D.O. (2020). Mathematical model for the transmission of COVID-19 with nonlinear forces of infection and the need for prevention measure in Nigeria. Journal Infectious Disease Epidemiology, 6(5) : 158, 1-12,

Eludini, T. (2020). "Nigeria postpones National Sports Festival over coronavirus". Premium Times. Retrieved 18 March 2020,

Habib, M.A., Dayyab, F.M., Iliyasu, G., Habib, A.G. (2021). Knowledge, attitude and practice survey of COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Nigeria. PLoS ONE 16(1) : e0245176, journal.pone.0245176.

Hyndman, R.J. and Koehler, A.B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4): 679–688. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001.

Iboi, E.A., Sharomi, O., Ngonghala., C.N., and Gumel, A.B. (2020). Mathematical modelling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 17(6): 7192–7220. DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020369

Irany, F.A., Akwafuo, S.E., Abah, T., Mikler, A.R., (2020). Estimating the Transmission Risk of COVID-19 in Nigeria: A Mathematical Modelling Approach. J Health Care and Research. 05;1(3):135-43

Jadevicius A., and Huston, S. (2015). ARIMA modelling of Lithuanian house price index. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 8(1), 135-147.

Kim, S., and Heeyoung, K. (2016). A new metric of absolute percentage error for intermittent demand forecast. International Journal of Forecasting, 32 (3): 669-679

Lauer, S. A., Grantz, K. H. Bi, Q., Jones, F. K., Zheng, Q., Meredith, H. R., Azman, A. S., Reich, N. G., Lessler, J. (2020). The incubation period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application, Annals of Internal Medicine 172(9), 577-582

Ljung, G. M., Box, G. E. P. (1978). On a measure of a lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 297-303, doi: 10.1093 /biomet/65.2.297

Makridakis, S. (1993). Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns. International Journal Forecasting, 9 (4): 527-529, doi:10. 10.1016/0169-2070(93) 90079-3.

Milenkovic, M., Svadlenka, L., Melichar, V., Bojović, N., Avramovic, Z. (2018). SARIMA modelling approach for railway passenger flow forecasting. Transport, 2018, 33(5): 1113–1120, ISSN 1648-4142 / eISSN 1648-3480, doi:10.3846/16484142.2016.1139623.

Misau, Y.A., Nansak, N., Maigoro, A., Malami, S., Mogere, D., Mbaruk, S., Mohammed, R., Lawal, S., Usman, S.U. (2020). Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission and control strategies in the population of Bauchi State, Nigeria. Annals of African Medical Research 2020; 3:120 doi:10.4081/aamr.2020.120

National Bureau of Statistics (2017). Demographic statistics bulletin, Federal Republic of Nigeria. Vol 3, Retrieved September 01, 2020, from

Nigeria Centre for Disease Control [NCDC], (2021). An update of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. Retrieved April, 22, 2021 from

Obi-Ani, N.A., Anikwenze, C. & Isiani, M.C. (2020) Social media and the Covid-19 pandemic: Observations from Nigeria. Cogent Arts & Humanities, 7:1, 1799483, doi: 10.1080/23311983.2020.1799483

Ogundele, K. (2020). "UPDATED: FG places travel ban on China, Italy, US, UK, nine others". The Punch Newspaper. Retrieved March 18, 2020, from

Okuonghae, D., and Omame, A. (2020). Analysis of a mathematical model for COVID-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 139(6),1-19.

Olaleye, A. (2020). "[UPDATED] Coronavirus: FG orders closure of varsities, schools nationwide". The Punch Newspaper. Retrieved 19 March 2020,

Olaniyi, S., Obabiyi, O.S., Okosun, K. O., Oladipo, A. T., Adewale, S. O. (2020). Mathematical modelling and optimal cost-effective control of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, European Physical Journal Plus.135, 135:938, 1-20,

Omaka-Amari, L.N., Aleke, C.O., Obande-Ogbuinya, N.E., Ngwakwe, P.C., Nwankwo, O. and Afoke, E.N.(2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic in Nigeria: Preventive and Control Challenges within the First Two Months of Outbreak. African Journal of Reproductive Health June 2020 (Special Edition on COVID-19); 24 (2):87, doi: 10.29063/ajrh2020/v24i2s.13.

Pontius, R., Thontteh, O. and Chen, H. (2008). Components of information for multiple resolution comparison between maps that share are real variable. Environmental Ecological Statistics , 15(2): 111-142, doi: 10.1007/s10651 -007-0043 - y.

Rojas, I., Pomares, H. (2016). Time series analysis and forecasting, Springer, New York.

Rothana, H. A., Byrareddy S.N. (2020). The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. J Autoimmun 2020;109:102433.

Shobiye, H. (2020). "COVID-19: Lagos bans gatherings of over 20". Vanguard Newspaper. Retrieved 21 March 2020,

Simon, S. K. (2007). A comparison of the forecasting ability of ARIMA models. Journal of Property and Investment and Finance, 25 (3) 223-240.

Tsay, R.S. (2005). Analysis of financial time series, John Wiley and Sons, New York.

Wei, W.W.S. (2005) . Time series analysis: Univariate and multivariate methods, Addison Wesley, New York, 2005.

Willmott, C.J., Matsuura, K. (2005). Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error ((RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Climate Research. 30: 79-82, doi: 10.3354/cr030079.

Yaffee, R.A., McGee, M. (2000). An introduction to time series analysis and forecasting: with applications of SAS and SPSS, Academic Press.




How to Cite

Adedire, O., Sadiku, Y., Adedire, O. O., Collina, K., Oladejo, A. O., & Sikiru, G. (2022). Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria. Journal of Computing Research and Innovation, 7(1), 1–14.



General Computing